Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre (OH BRC) Data Science Theme researchers are involved in a new project, providing evidence needed to create safe and effective ways to reduce reliance on imprisonment to manage crime in the UK and beyond.
Over 11 million people are imprisoned worldwide, with incarceration rates continuing to rise. In England and Wales, more than half of prisons are operating over capacity, and projections suggest prisoner numbers could reach over 100,000 by 2029.
While prison is widely used to manage crime, research shows it often fails to reduce reoffending and can cause significant harm, including poor health, economic costs including the cost of running prisons, and negatively impact families and communities.
Professor Seena Fazel, OH BRC Data Science Theme Co-Lead and Dr Howard Ryland, OH BRC Data Science Theme researcher are part of a team of experts working on the Oxford Martin Programme on Decarceration at the University of Oxford.
The programme brings together experts in psychiatry, criminology, law, philosophy, economics and data science to:
- examine the ethical principles underpinning decarceration
- improve decision-making tools for sentencing and parole
- review and evaluate alternatives to prison such as community sentences and treatment orders
- develop a broader outcomes framework that includes health, employment, family and community wellbeing
- model the economic impacts of different strategies.
By working with policymakers, practitioners and the people with lived experience of the prison system, the programme aims to influence sentencing policy, build confidence in alternatives, and support safer, more effective approaches to justice and public safety.
Professor Seena Fazel said: “Decarceration is not just about reducing prison numbers, it’s about improving public safety through evidence-based alternatives.
“Our work uses data science to explore how we can safely reduce reliance on imprisonment, while addressing the broader harms it causes to health, families, and communities. This is a vital step towards a more just and effective criminal justice system.”
Read more about the programme online: Oxford Martin Programme on Decarceration
