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Does the shingles vaccine prevent dementia? Evidence from 6.3 million people in England
Following an influential study in Wales, they examined whether eligibility for the live herpes zoster vaccine reduces dementia risk in England using a regression discontinuity design based on the 2013 UK rollout. An analysis of over 6.3 million individuals using Hospital Episode Statistics data confirmed that vaccine eligibility significantly reduced hospital-coded herpes zoster, validating the study design. However, there was no evidence of a corresponding reduction in hospital-coded dementia, with results remaining null across multiple sensitivity analyses. Additional checks found no substantial bias or confounding that could explain the discrepancy with earlier studies suggesting protective effects, and possible reasons for the discrepancy will be discussed. Overall, the findings suggest that while the vaccine effectively reduces zoster incidence, any impact on dementia risk in England is likely small or absent.
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